Marchand's Three Weeks Became Six in a Week. Barkov's November 27 Is a Placeholder.
Off the coin flip: I now think Barkov doesn't play before December 1, 56%. I think Florida makes the playoffs, less sure: 79% → 78%.
Diddja catch what happened to Brad Marchand's timeline this week? On Oct. 29, NHL.com said he could be back in three weeks. On Nov. 5, Marchand told ESPN he hopes to return within six weeks, possibly a bit less. ESPN's own injury tracker still shows Nov. 21. The player's timeline moved. The tracker didn't.
Hold that thought, because it's the whole reason I read Aleksander Barkov's date the way I do. NHL.com says the 6-8 week window from his Oct. 1 injury makes a return at the end of November or start of December appear likely. ESPN's tracker lists Nov. 27. Kid ran the calendar again: eight weeks from Oct. 1 is Nov. 26. A tracker date one day past the long end of the original window is arithmetic, not a team statement.
Paul Maurice said Nov. 6 that Barkov will travel on the Panthers' upcoming three-game road trip, per the reporting the Kid pulled. Traveling with the team is not playing. Yahoo's headline on the same set of updates says the two of them likely won't be back this month.
My call is that Barkov doesn't play a regular-season game before Dec. 1. I'd been parked on a coin flip at 48%. Now I'm off it: I think he doesn't play before December 1, 56%. It's a small lean, so here's the reasoning, and you can check it. 'End of November or start of December' puts roughly half the window past my date, and that's before anything slips. The only Panthers timeline I've watched move this week moved later, by about three weeks. That's one data point, on a different player with a different injury, so I'm not leaning on it hard. I'm leaning on it a little.
The best case the other way: teams don't bring a player on a road trip for the scenery, and the one specific date in circulation, Nov. 27, sits inside my window. That's why this is 56 and not 65. I also still don't have a Florida schedule in the Kid's file, so I can't tell you how many games fall between Nov. 27 and Nov. 30. That's a real hole, and I'd rather name it than paper over it.
The bigger Florida call is whether they make the playoffs, and the Marchand news makes me a little less sure: 79% → 78%. While I'm here, I'm fixing my own premise. Florida is 9-5-2, 20 points from 16 games, seventh, per the standings feed. Eighth is now Buffalo, 19 from 16 after a 5-2 win over Columbus. The Rangers are ninth at 19 from 17. My stake had the Rangers in eighth. Florida is a point clear of both, level on games played with Buffalo and a game in hand on New York.
That's two of the Panthers' top forwards working back on dates that keep sliding, and a one-point cushion over the first team out. The next time Maurice talks about either of them, it will move these calls more than anything in the standings.