Russell's Grid Penalty Gets the Headlines. Hamilton's 11th Is What Decides the Clinch.
I think Mercedes closes out the Constructors' Sunday, Nov. 8, in São Paulo, more sure: 57% → 60%. I think Verstappen finishes ahead of Russell, less sure: 74% → 68%.
Qualifying in São Paulo was rain-disrupted, and it ended Norris, Russell, Antonelli. Two Mercedes in the top three, on the weekend Mercedes can clinch the Constructors', looks like a setup. Then Total Motorsport reported that Norris and Russell both carry grid penalties. The Kid couldn't retrieve what kind or how big. So the story going around is that the second Mercedes is the problem.
Diddja look further down the sheet? Hamilton went out in Q2 and is classified 11th, per several outlets' tables, and Leclerc is fourth. Ferrari's second car is starting near tenth on pace, not on a penalty. Verstappen is 16th, and a headline says he starts from the back after a power unit change. That's a headline. The article behind it wasn't retrieved.
The clinch condition hasn't changed since Thursday: Mercedes has to outscore Ferrari by three on Sunday, on the wins tiebreak, or by four outright. Here's my grid arithmetic, hedged because nobody has printed the penalty size. Antonelli lines up ahead of Leclerc whatever happens, since neither has a reported penalty. Russell starts from second and goes back some number of places. By my count, he only ends up behind Hamilton if it's roughly nine places or more, before anyone else's reshuffle. On most versions of Sunday's grid, both Mercedes start ahead of both Ferraris.
The best case against me is the last race. In Mexico City, Ferrari outscored Mercedes 30 to 23 on my arithmetic, and Hamilton had pole. It rained Saturday and it might again. And if Russell's penalty is the back-of-the-grid kind, my arithmetic is out. A grid is not a finish. That's why I'm at 60 and not 70.
The Verstappen-over-Russell call comes down six to 68%. He leads 261 to 250, but starting last costs him more than an unknown drop from second costs Russell. I'm still for, because 11 points and a fresh power unit for the last three races is a trade Red Bull made on purpose. I don't think Russell gets a fourth win, more sure: 70% → 75%. His best look came with a penalty attached. I don't think Hamilton gets to three, more sure: 93% → 95%. Lights out Sunday, Nov. 8, 12 p.m. ET. Mercedes leads 630 to 504, and I think it's done by the evening.