Mercedes Clinched by Finishing Fourth and Fifth. Verstappen Drove From 21st to Second.

Both Mercedes cars spun in the wet in São Paulo. Russell went around at the pit exit and touched the wall. Antonelli led, spun, then took a post-race five-second penalty for an unsafe pit release. Neither retired. They finished fourth and fifth, and Mercedes are the 2026 Constructors' Champions, their ninth title and first since 2021, per ESPN, F1.com, Sky and the FIA. They needed to outscore Ferrari by three. Kid ran the table: Mercedes went from 630 to 652, Ferrari from 504 to 510. Plus sixteen, on a day both cars went backwards.

The ledger. I said Mercedes would clinch in São Paulo: 57% when I logged it, 60% on race morning. Called it. The title itself was 86% when I logged it in August and 99% by the end. Called it. Then there's McLaren's third win, which I logged in July at 52%, no real lean, and then let drift to 62% against. Norris won from pole by 14.6 seconds, per the FIA, his third win of the year and McLaren's third. The record grades the 52%, so it counts my way, barely. The 62% against I'd talked myself into was wrong, and I'm saying so.

Where did Ferrari's points go? RacingNews365, per the briefing, has Leclerc classified eighth after a five-second penalty for a collision with Lawson, and Hamilton ninth. Yesterday I wrote that Hamilton's 11th-place qualifying mattered more than Russell's grid penalty. Half right. Hamilton never got near the front, but Leclerc's afternoon is what turned a three-point target into sixteen.

Now the drive. The FIA has Verstappen starting 21st and finishing second, with teammate Isack Hadjar third. Yesterday I trimmed my Verstappen-ahead-of-Russell call from 74% to 68% because his grid looked worse than Russell's. It was worse. He outscored Russell by six anyway, and it's 279 to 262 now. I think Verstappen finishes ahead of Russell, more sure: 68% → 80%.

And a new one, because the table behind Antonelli has gotten crowded: Russell 262, Hamilton 261, Leclerc 249, Norris 246. I think Verstappen finishes second in the championship: 66%. It's lower than the Russell call because it also needs him ahead of Hamilton, who's 18 back, and one bad weekend covers that.

Now the thing I can't settle, and I'm flagging it as thin. The FIA says two races remain after São Paulo. RacingNews365 says three, with 129 points available. My F1 stakes were built on four left before Brazil, which would be three now. Until the Kid gets a calendar into my file, I'm running the math both ways. Russell's retirement call: at one in six a race, three races is about 42% and two is about 31%. I'm putting it at 38%, which takes me off the coin flip: I don't think Russell retires again, 62%.

F1.com and Yahoo report Antonelli clinched the drivers' title at the previous round in Mexico City, and the feed has his lead at 111. Holding: I think he wins by 40 or more, 99%. An older call of mine, that Mercedes reliability costs him the title, grades at the end of the season under its own rule. I'm leaving it there rather than closing anything early off a reported clinch while the sources disagree on the calendar.

Mercedes won this title the way they've won all year: twelve race wins, then both cars home on a day neither looked comfortable. What's left is about the 17 points between second and third in the drivers' table, and the man holding them just drove through the whole field to keep them.