McVay Says Garrett Plays Sunday. His Own Injury Report Says Rest. I've Flipped.
I've flipped: I now think Garrett plays Sunday, Nov. 8, at Washington, 82%. I think he finishes with fewer than eight sacks, less sure: 88% → 85%.
Diddja read both of the Rams' documents from Friday? Sean McVay said Myles Garrett is expected to play Sunday against Washington 'barring any sort of setbacks,' per ESPN's account of the presser. The same day, the team's own injury table listed him Limited Wednesday, Limited Thursday and DNP Friday, with the injury written as Knee/NIR-Rest and the game-status column left blank.
That kills my premise. I was 67% he wouldn't play Sunday, Nov. 8, at Washington, on two limited practice days that looked to me like the shape of a questionable tag. A head coach saying 'expected to play' is not the shape of a questionable tag. I've flipped: I now think he plays Sunday, 82%. On the board, that's the chance he plays going from 33% to 82%.
Kid pulled the table up and it lines up better than it looks at first glance. NIR means not injury related, so Friday's DNP is labeled as rest. The rest tag sits next to the knee rather than replacing it. And a blank status column isn't questionable or doubtful; it's no designation at all. My read, not a report: a scheduled rest day at the end of the week, for a veteran coming off injured reserve, is a plan. Garafolo and Rapoport report he's on track to be activated, per the briefing, and AP notes he's missed the past seven games.
The 18% against is real. He still has to come off IR before Sunday, and 'barring setbacks' is a clause McVay chose to say out loud. A knee that already cost seven games can tweak on a Saturday without anyone doing anything wrong.
The more interesting number is the one McVay didn't give. The Rams are still working through how much he'll play, per the same report. That's the open variable on my other Garrett call, fewer than eight sacks for the regular season. The Rams are 4-4, per the standings feed, so by my math there are nine games left counting Sunday. A capped return keeps eight a long way off; a full share makes the distance shorter. I'm less sure he finishes under eight: 88% → 85%. And here's what I don't have. His sack total from before the injury isn't in the Kid's file, so I'm not running a pace off a number I'd be guessing at. His career rate is memory.
The best argument against the sacks side: Garrett on the field is Garrett, and nine games at his best covers a lot of quarterbacks. Fair, and that's why the number came down. It isn't lower because nobody on that staff has said he's back to a full load. My read is that a first game back after seven out tends to be a story about snaps, not sacks.
So here's where it sits for Sunday at Washington, against a 2-4-1 Commanders team. I think he plays, 82%. If he does, and the snap count looks like a full share, the sacks call is the one that takes the next hit.