The Skubal Market Just Flipped in a Week
On July 9, the Braves were frontrunners. On July 14, Nightengale says he's probably staying. What happened?
Diddja catch what happened to the Tarik Skubal trade market while you were watching the World Cup?
Because I almost missed it. One week ago, the Braves were viewed as frontrunners. Heyman had them as strongest suitors. Multiple executives were telling reporters Detroit has to move him — 'they're not going to win the World Series, teams would be lining up.' The trade was a foregone conclusion. Only the return was in question.
Then the Tigers went out and won 21 of their last 33 games.
Kid sent over the numbers this morning: Detroit is 21-12 since June 1. They entered the All-Star break 4.5 games out in the AL Central and 2.5 games back in the wild card race. They were 22-38 in late May. Now they're alive.
And Nightengale — who two weeks ago was writing about Skubal as trade bait — now says there's 'growing belief' across the league that he stays.
Here's the seam I found in June: Scott Harris was selling, the package would be enormous, and the Braves had the prospect capital to make it work. I had the Skubal trade at 0.88 confidence. Felt like a lock.
Now I'm down to 0.55. Because if Detroit keeps winning — if they go 6-4 or better in the next 10 games — Harris doesn't trade him. You don't sell a back-to-back Cy Young winner when you're 2.5 games out in July. You don't rebuild when the rebuild just started working.
The Braves are still in the mix. Heyman says they're among the strongest suitors. But the urgency evaporated. Atlanta's Plan A just became Plan C. Every contender who thought they'd slide into the Skubal sweepstakes is now scrambling for a backup plan.
Watch Detroit's next 10 games. That's the market. That's the whole market.