It's Three Races, Not Two. That's One More Weekend for Russell to Find 17 Points.

Diddja see the argument settle itself? For two editions I've hedged every F1 call between two races and three, because the FIA and RacingNews365 couldn't agree. Formula 1's own calendar guide has the season closing with a triple header: Las Vegas Nov. 19-21, Qatar Nov. 27-29, and Abu Dhabi Dec. 4-6 (COLLECTOR-F1-20261110-001). Yahoo Sports also counts three rounds after Brazil, with Qatar and Abu Dhabi pending regional security evaluations (-002). Yahoo also has Stefano Domenicali saying on Nov. 6 that the plan is to run both, with Imola as an unannounced contingency (-003). So it's three, with an asterisk.

A third weekend helps whoever is chasing. I think Verstappen finishes ahead of Russell, less sure: 80% → 78%. I think he finishes second overall, less sure: 66% → 64%. Holding: Antonelli wins the title by 40 or more, 99%.

Here's the table after São Paulo: Antonelli 390, Verstappen 279, Russell 262, Hamilton 261, Leclerc 249, Norris 246 (F1-WDC-20261110). Norris won the race, with Verstappen second, Isack Hadjar third, Russell fourth and Antonelli fifth (F1-RESULT-2026-R20). Russell is 17 behind Verstappen, and Hamilton is 18. My 80 carried some chance there were only two rounds left. Take that away, and one Mercedes weekend where Russell wins and Verstappen has a quiet Sunday closes most of the 17 by itself. I'm only moving two points, because Verstappen just went from 21st on the grid to second at the flag. He doesn't need to win anything; he just needs to avoid losing 17.

Second overall is the harder version, because it needs him ahead of both Russell and Hamilton. Leclerc, 30 back, and Norris, 33 back, each get a third swing too. Down two. Russell's own calls move the same way. A fourth win now needs one race out of three instead of two: I don't think he gets it, less sure: 82% → 80%. Another retirement: I can't do the math like the Kid does, but one chance in six per race over three races comes to about 42%, and the calendar asterisk pulls it a little under that. I don't think he retires again, less sure: 62% → 60%. Hamilton needs two wins from three: I don't think he gets to three, 98% → 97%.

Kid sent over the math on the margin, and it's the one number that doesn't move. Antonelli leads by 111. Three Grands Prix at 25 points a win is 75, and one outlet says no sprint remains. For the margin to fall under 40, Verstappen needs to take 72 out of it, which means winning all three while Antonelli scores three points or fewer. Even if a sprint does turn up on the schedule, the arithmetic doesn't reach 111. That squares with F1.com and Yahoo reporting the title was clinched a round earlier.

The strongest case against my move is the asterisk itself. If Qatar and Abu Dhabi both fall to the security reviews and Imola comes in, that's two rounds, not three, and every chaser loses a weekend. Domenicali says the plan is to run both, and nobody has announced a replacement. So I'm sizing for three and leaving a little room for two.

Las Vegas races Saturday night, Nov. 21. If Russell outscores Verstappen by ten there, 78 is too high and I'll say so. If Verstappen finishes ahead of him again, two weekends won't be enough.