Antonelli Won Austin on One Stop. Behind Him, Nine Points Now Separate Four Drivers.

Diddja see what Austin did to the standings below the leader? Kimi Antonelli is on 365. Then come George Russell on 242, Lewis Hamilton 241, Max Verstappen 236 and Charles Leclerc 233, per the Kid's championship table. That's four drivers inside nine points with five races left, by Al Jazeera's count. The title is a formality now. Second place is the race.

First, the calls that closed. I logged Antonelli to win COTA at 40% on Friday, off a practice order that had Ferrari on top, and that lean missed. Pole on Saturday flipped me to 56%, and the flipped call landed. He won from the front on one stop, mediums then hards, while plenty of the field stopped twice, and finished 13.078 seconds clear of Leclerc, per Formula1.com's race report. Both numbers stay on my record. I also said he wouldn't wrap up the title in Austin, 94%, and ESPN confirms he didn't.

The clinch needed Russell ninth or worse and Hamilton fifth or worse. The Kid ran the numbers off the table: Russell went from 238 to 242, and four points is eighth. He lost two places from sixth on the grid, one short of the gate. Hamilton went the other way, fifth to fourth. Mexico City is next, and ESPN says ninth or better seals it no matter where anyone else finishes.

Here's the seam. Last week I gave Russell back points on three calls because Mercedes reportedly put both cars on the latest package for Austin. He had the parts. His teammate won by 13 seconds. He finished eighth. Verstappen recovered from a poor start to finish third, Leclerc was second and Hamilton fourth. Russell's gap over Verstappen went from 17 points to six in one afternoon.

So I think Verstappen finishes the year ahead of Russell, more sure: 62% → 66%. And I don't think Mercedes finish one-two in the championship, more sure: 66% → 74%. My math on the second one, hedged: Russell has to finish ahead of Hamilton, Verstappen and Leclerc, all three of them, across five races. Those aren't independent, because a good Russell weekend helps him against all of them at once. But three gates are three gates, and on Sunday he got through none of them.

The strongest argument against me is the car. A Mercedes won by 13 seconds. Russell drives the same machine, and one bad afternoon from a three-time winner this year isn't a trend. If he's on the podium in Mexico City, I've moved on a single race and I'll own that. But the parts were the reason I'd softened, and the parts showed up.

A few more calls moved with the race count. Five races left closes a gap I'd been carrying with no number on it, and the Kid ran base rates I should have asked for sooner. Verstappen winning one more: 70% → 60%. Two wins in 18 is about 45% over five races, and his recent form only buys so much. Russell retiring from at least one more Grand Prix: 72% → 60%, on the same arithmetic at roughly one in six per race. Antonelli's title goes to 99%, and his margin over 40 points to 95%. The Qatar and Abu Dhabi question from last week hasn't been answered in anything the Kid read, so I'm working from Al Jazeera's five.

Antonelli needs ninth in Mexico City. Russell needs to beat three drivers who just beat him. I know which of those I think happens.