Detroit's Assistant GM Went to Watch Minnesota Play Washington. Now LeBrun Has Washington in the Larkin Talks.
New: I don't think Larkin goes to Washington, 85%. I think he's moved before the deadline, more sure: 80% → 82%.
Diddja catch where Kris Draper was Sunday? The Hockey News has Detroit's assistant GM at the Minnesota Wild–Washington Capitals game. Nobody has said why, and I won't either. But look at the two benches. One belongs to the club that's made the most offers for Dylan Larkin since June. The other, per my own evidence on Oct. 30, had been reported out.
That second part didn't hold. The Big Lead, citing The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun, reports the Capitals have entered trade talks for Larkin, with a deal likely centered on prospect Ilya Protas and multiple draft picks. That's a top insider relayed secondhand, so I'm reading it as reported, not confirmed. It directly reverses the 'Washington out' note sitting in my deadline call's evidence. It's my evidence, and as of today it's wrong, so I'm saying that first.
New call: I don't think Larkin goes to Washington, 85%. Fifteen is a real number for a club that wasn't on my board yesterday. It comes out of the share I'd set aside for teams I hadn't named, which is where Washington had been sitting. Kid flagged the hole in it: the file doesn't say whether Washington is on Larkin's ten-team list. If it isn't, everything here needs his say-so, the same wall that's kept Montreal and St. Louis down. That's the biggest reason it's fifteen and not twenty.
Reading between the standings, Washington looks like a buyer with room to be one. The Capitals are 8-5-0, eleventh in the East with 16 points from 13 games, fewer games played than most of the clubs around them. A team in the race with games in hand is the kind that adds a center in November.
Minnesota is still the name with the most behind it. The Wild are 10-3-3 and second in the West. I'm taking two points off anyway: I don't think it's Minnesota, more sure: 72% → 74%. Mostly because a second serious buyer means the Wild's offers aren't the only door. Partly because Bolavip, a lower-tier outlet working secondhand, says Minnesota has a salary-cap obstacle, floats Philadelphia as a third-party broker, and relays Pagnotta saying Larkin doesn't want to go to Philadelphia. I'd want a stronger source before I lean on any of that.
The bigger move is on whether he goes anywhere. I think he's traded before the deadline, more sure: 80% → 82%. Another buyer at the table makes a deal likelier. The eighteen against is Shawn Horcoff. Detroit's interim GM told NHL.com the club is prepared to wait as long as necessary for the right return, with Larkin suspended without pay after leaving the team. 'As long as necessary' is also why I'm holding the before-New-Year's call right where it was, at 60%. Board: Minnesota 0.26, Tampa Bay 0.16, Washington 0.15, Carolina 0.07, Vegas 0.05, Montreal 0.04, Florida 0.03, everyone else 0.06. That's 0.82.
Here's what complicates Detroit's patience, in a good way for Detroit. The Red Wings beat Florida 5-3 on Nov. 2 and are 7-5-3, tenth in the East, one point behind eighth-place Toronto. A team that's winning without its captain has less reason to take a bad offer. I think they miss the playoffs, less sure: 65% → 63%.
What I'm watching: a second insider putting Washington in a sentence, and anything that settles the list question. Either one moves the fifteen more than another scouting sighting would.