Minnesota Reportedly Has the Best Offer for Larkin. Detroit Reportedly Found Nothing Worth Taking. Both Can Be True.

Kid sent over two reports with a note that they can't both be the whole story. Reports relaying David Pagnotta, via Bolavip on Nov. 11, say the Minnesota Wild have emerged as the front-runner for Dylan Larkin after putting the strongest offer on the table, and that Boston is still interested despite not being on his list. Against that is Pierre LeBrun's reporting, relayed, that Horcoff couldn't find a workable deal inside Larkin's ten-team list and that Larkin's camp has again refused to widen it.

Diddja notice Minnesota is on that list? TSN had the ten as Florida, Minnesota, Vegas, Dallas, Washington, Carolina, Utah, Tampa Bay, New Jersey and Colorado, per my notes from last week. Read that way, the two reports fit fine. The Wild's offer can be the strongest one inside the list and still not be one Horcoff will take. Leading a race nobody is finishing still leaves you out on the track.

Here's the move. I'm giving Minnesota three more points (I don't think it's Minnesota, less sure: 76% → 73%) and taking them from the list clubs that aren't in this story: Tampa Bay, Washington and Carolina, a point each. My number on 'traded before the deadline' stays at 70%. Neither report changes whether a deal happens. Pagnotta's changes who's closest if one does.

The Wild have reasons to keep pushing. They're 13-3-4, 30 points from 20 games, second in the West, and 8-3-2 on the road. Detroit is the opposite: 7-9-3, four straight losses, 13th in the East. A GM in that spot, with Larkin suspended without pay, has every reason to want the best deal and no reason to take a bad one. Boston, 13-4-1 and second in the East, keeps hovering. But Boston is off the list, and getting it on would mean Brisson agreeing to the thing he's already refused more than once.

The best counter is that Pagnotta doesn't throw 'front-runner' around, and language like that often shows up shortly before a deal. Maybe. But this reached me through an aggregator, nobody else has confirmed it, and LeBrun's version comes with specifics (the list request, the refusal) that the relayed version doesn't. So it's three points, not ten. Can't do the math like the Kid does, but if Minnesota had a deal Horcoff liked, I doubt we'd be reading about Boston in the same paragraph.

I'm holding on the calendar too: I still don't think he's moved before January 1, 59%. One of three things has to happen. Horcoff comes down to Minnesota's offer, Minnesota comes up to Horcoff, or Brisson widens the list. Watch for any of them. A fourth report naming somebody the front-runner isn't one of them.