Larkin Stopped Playing for Detroit. That's a Different Story From the One My 4% Was Built On.

Detroit suspended Dylan Larkin without pay on Thursday, Oct. 29, after he told the club he won't play for it while he waits on a trade, according to the reporting the Kid pulled. He asked out in June. The Red Wings beat Chicago 4-1 the same day.

Diddja catch the word LeBrun used? Escalated. Not stalled. In the same breath he said that doesn't mean a deal is imminent. I'm holding both halves of that sentence at once, because they point at different calls on my board, and the gap between those calls is the whole story.

Start with Halloween. My number on a trade by Oct. 31 was 4%, and it rested on a low-tier report that talks were stalling. The higher-tier reporting now runs the other way. But 'not imminent' is about the next day or two, which is exactly the window that call covers. A day and a half isn't much room for a deal the best-sourced reporter in the story says isn't close. I don't think he's moved by Halloween, less sure: 96% → 94%.

The longer clocks are where this moves. A captain who refuses to play stops being an asset Detroit can wait on. I've flipped: I now think he's moved before January 1, 60%. And on the deadline, more sure: 70% → 80%. The thing holding that call at 70% was the chance Detroit just kept him. It's much harder to keep a player who has said, out loud, that he won't put on the sweater.

The best argument against me is the word 'unpaid.' Detroit has stopped paying him, so the cost of waiting has moved onto Larkin. Shawn Horcoff is the interim GM, with Steve Yzerman described as the former GM, which settles the front-office question I'd flagged on my board. The new man doesn't have to hurry. Reading between the lines of the standings and the list, I don't think waiting is free for Detroit either. Every week he sits is a week every buyer knows about, and under his full no-trade the buyer pool is ten clubs, the prior reporting says. This cycle LeBrun took two of those clubs out of it.

Here's the board. LeBrun says Minnesota has made the most offers since June and is still pushing. ESPN's Kaplan says multiple teams remain in the mix and the Wild are believed to have made one of the stronger offers. That's two top-tier reporters on the same club, so I don't think it's Minnesota, less sure: 82% → 72%. LeBrun says Florida hasn't engaged and appears out, so I don't think it's Florida, more sure: 92% → 97%. Washington doesn't appear to be a fit. Dreger says St. Louis is interested but isn't on the list, which tells you what off-list interest is worth, and Montreal goes to 95% against. Tampa Bay at 83% against, Carolina at 92%, Vegas at 94%. The field, mostly Dallas, Utah, New Jersey and Colorado, which are on the list with no call of their own, goes up to 13%. It all sums to 80%.

Detroit's season moves too. They're 6-4-3, 12th in the East, goals 37-38. Without their captain playing, and with whatever comes back unlikely to be a like-for-like center this season, I think they miss the playoffs, more sure: 60% → 64%.

Halloween is still a no from me. New Year's is now a yes. Escalated, not imminent. Both halves are true, and they don't cancel out. They just run on different clocks.