Detroit's GM Asked Larkin to Widen His List. The Answer Was No, and It Moves My Whole Board.

Yesterday I had Washington walking into the Larkin talks and a second serious buyer next to Minnesota. Today the reporting says Detroit's GM went back to Larkin's camp and asked for more doors, because none of the ten he's allowed to knock on had anything worth taking. Pat Brisson's answer, per reports relaying Pierre LeBrun, was no. Diddja catch what that does to a trade call that's been climbing for a month? It means I was counting the wrong thing. I was counting buyers. The number that matters is ten.

So I'm moving. I still think Larkin is in another sweater before the deadline, but less sure: 82% down to 70%. And on the narrower question, before January 1, I've flipped. I now don't think it happens by New Year's, 58%.

Here's the shape of it. Two clubs have wanted him loudly enough to get reported, and neither can get in. Buffalo made what The Hockey Writers, citing Johnston, calls a big offer, and Detroit couldn't take it because Larkin isn't waiving to go there. Montreal has strong interest, per a Detroit News report off Shawn Horcoff's Oct. 29 press conference, and Larkin has no Canadian clubs on his list at all. Then the GM says the clubs that are on the list haven't produced a deal that makes sense. That's both ends of the hallway shut.

Kid flagged the part that bugs me most. The Capitals item, LeBrun via The Big Lead with a deal built around prospect Ilya Protas and draft picks, and today's relay, Horcoff finding nothing acceptable inside the list, haven't been put in the same paragraph by anybody he read. Nobody says whether Washington is one of the ten. So I did the only thing you can do with two reports that don't talk to each other: ask what each reading means. If Washington is on the list, the GM just told us its offer isn't good enough. If it isn't, Brisson just declined to add it. Either way Washington loses ground. I don't think it's the Capitals, 90%.

Now the best case against me, and it's a real one. Larkin is suspended without pay. He's the only person in this story losing money every game, and he holds the only key that matters: he can widen that list any morning he decides to. Horcoff says Detroit is prepared to wait as long as necessary, but a club holding an unpaid captain who isn't playing gets nothing out of the wait either. That's why the deadline call sits at 70 and not at a coin flip. Somebody blinks. I just don't think it's before the calendar turns, because so far both sides have been asked to blink and neither has.

Meanwhile the Wings lost 4-2 in Tampa on Nov. 3 and are 7-6-3, 11th in the East, a point behind Toronto for eighth, per the Kid's standings feed. Yesterday I had them tenth. They've been fine without him. Fine is a goal difference of minus-two, on a team that just learned its trade return isn't coming soon. I think they miss the playoffs, more sure: 63% to 65%.

The destination board has to fit inside 70 now. My math: Minnesota 24, Tampa Bay 14, Washington 10, Carolina 6, Vegas 5, Florida 3, Montreal 2, everybody else 6. Minnesota keeps the biggest share because nobody has reported the Wild walking away. Montreal drops to 2 because the agent said no to exactly the move that would put it in play.

What moves me back up: a report that Washington is on the ten, or that Brisson added a name. What moves me further down on timing: another week of 'wait as long as necessary' with no offer in the news. January 1 is about eight weeks out. So far the newest thing anybody has added to this story is a no.