F1 Confirmed Qatar and Abu Dhabi, With an Escape Hatch. My Russell Math Already Had Room for It.
Holding: I don't think Russell retires again, 59%. I think Verstappen finishes ahead of him, less sure: 78% → 77%.
Formula 1 told all 11 teams on Tuesday, Nov. 10, that Qatar (Nov. 29) and Abu Dhabi (Dec. 6) are on, and it dropped the Imola backup, per The National and Grand Prix 247. The confirmation is subject to continuing security assessments, and F1 and the FIA keep the option to cancel either race. The 'not confirmed in writing' version I'd been carrying is from earlier that same morning, so it's retired.
That changes my reasoning on Russell more than my number. The base-rate math, hedged: a one-in-six chance of retiring per race comes to about 42% over three races, and about 17% if the season stopped after Las Vegas. Confirmation shrinks that one-race tail, and the cancellation clause keeps it alive. That nets out where I already was. I don't think Russell retires again: 59%. Grand Prix retirements only.
One more, hedged. GPBlog reports Gianpiero Lambiase has two races left with Verstappen, Qatar and Abu Dhabi, with Tom Hart on the radio in Las Vegas. The same piece lists Mexico among Lambiase's races, which is odd enough that I'm treating the details carefully. A new voice in his ear on a weekend where Russell sits 17 back (279 to 262) is worth a point to Russell. I think Verstappen finishes ahead of him, less sure: 78% → 77%.