Garrett Is Off IR. The Rams Still Won't Say for How Many Snaps, and That's the Whole Sack Question.
I think he plays Sunday, Nov. 8, at Washington, more sure: 82% → 96%. New: I don't think he gets a sack in his return, 62%. Holding: fewer than eight on the season, 85%.
Everybody's writing that Myles Garrett is back. He is. The Rams activated him from injured reserve Saturday, his first game since Week 1, and the briefing has no designation on him for Sunday, Nov. 8, 1 p.m. ET at Washington. Diddja notice the one thing the Rams still haven't said? McVay said Friday they're still working through how much he plays. Yardbarker, per the briefing, has him on a snap count with the limit not set. Every sack argument this week starts there.
First, the easy call. I flipped to Garrett playing at 82% yesterday, waiting on the activation. It happened, so I'm at 96%. The call needs one snap, not a full workload. The four I hold back cover a pregame scratch, which is the only way this misses now.
Now the season call. Kid flagged this one: Heavy reports Garrett hasn't recorded a stat this season. He played one game before knee surgery, so the count starts at zero. The Rams are 4-4, which by my math leaves nine games counting Sunday. Eight sacks in nine is about 0.89 a game, roughly 15 over a full season. He's the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, per NFL.com, and from memory he ran well past that rate last year. That's why I'm not higher than 85%. A return on an unset snap count, off a surgically repaired knee, is why I'm not lower. Holding.
The best case against me is the matchup. Athlon, per the briefing, has Washington allowing 16 sacks in seven games. That's about 2.3 a game, and coverage is calling Garrett a mismatch. Fair. But those sacks are shared across a whole front, and the Rams had only 10 team sacks through late October in the Kid's prior file. Daniels was a full practice participant and came off the injury report, so Washington isn't starting a backup. The mismatch is real for every snap Garrett is on the field. Nobody will say how many that is.
So here's the new call, logged before kickoff: I don't think Garrett records a sack against Washington: 62%. If he gets a full share and still comes up empty, I'll have been right for the wrong reason, and I'll say so. If he gets one on twenty snaps, that's a DPOY doing what a DPOY does, and the miss stays on the board.