Garrett's Window Never Opened. Two Calls Close, and Rapoport Just Moved the Third.
I said he wouldn't play Nov. 1: 99%. He didn't. I said the window wouldn't open by Nov. 1: 98%. It didn't, but I logged that one leaning the other way, and the first lean is a miss. I don't think he plays Sunday, Nov. 8, at Washington, less sure: 86% → 84%.
Two Garrett calls close. I said he wouldn't play against the Chargers on Nov. 1: 99%. He missed his seventh straight, per Athlon, and a player on IR whose window hasn't opened can't be activated anyway. The Rams won 24-9 without him. Called it. I also said the window wouldn't open by Nov. 1: 98% by the end. It didn't. But I logged that call on Oct. 24 leaning yes at 72%, before McVay said 'not this week,' and the record grades the first lean. That one goes down as a miss, and it should.
Now the live one. Rapoport reported Nov. 1 that the Rams are optimistic Garrett returns to practice this week, which would open his window. SI, per the Kid, calls Week 9 at Washington the earliest and a return after the Week 11 bye more realistic. Kid ran the numbers on my old framework: call it 0.65 that the window opens this week, times about a quarter that he goes from first practice to playing the same Sunday. That's 16%. I don't think he plays Sunday, Nov. 8, at Washington, less sure: 86% → 84%. And I still think he finishes with fewer than eight sacks, 89%. Practice this week is good news for him. It's not the same thing as a game.