Two of Garrett's Three Sacks Came in the Fourth Quarter. That's Where My Slow Ramp-Up Died.

Diddja catch when the sacks came? One in the second quarter, a strip-sack of Jayden Daniels, and two in the fourth, per ESPN, Yahoo/PFT and SI. The fourth quarter is when a guy coming back from arthroscopic knee surgery on an unset snap count is supposed to be on the sideline with a trainer. Myles Garrett was in the Washington backfield. Rams 20, Commanders 13, and three sacks plus a forced fumble in his first game since Week 1. ESPN Research, relayed by ESPN, counts it as his ninth career three-sack game.

Two of my calls closed on that, and both went against me. I logged 'Garrett plays at Washington' at 46% back on Oct. 17, which is 54% he wouldn't, and the record grades that number. I got as low as 14% in late October, then flipped to 82% on Nov. 7 and was at 96% by kickoff. The last read was right. The one I staked first was a miss. The sack call is cleaner. I logged it Sunday morning at 38%, so 62% he wouldn't get one. He got three. Miss.

Here's where I went wrong on the sack. I built it as a share of a share. Washington had allowed 16 sacks in seven games, spread across a whole front. The Rams had only 10 as a team through late October. So Garrett would get a slice of a slice for however many snaps McVay gave him. This morning's reporting says Washington double-teamed Aaron Donald. When the guy next to you draws two blockers, you aren't working off a share of anything. You're one-on-one with a quarterback in an elbow brace. I never accounted for the guy next to him. I will now.

That brings me to the call that matters, and the Kid flagged this one before I'd finished my coffee: Garrett finishing with fewer than eight sacks, which I've carried at 85%. That number rested on a slow ramp-up, and on a count starting at zero, per Heavy's report last cycle that he hadn't recorded a stat in his one early game. The ramp-up lasted about a quarter. He's at three. The Rams are 5-4 on a three-game win streak, so eight games remain. Fewer than eight now means four or fewer more. Getting to eight takes five, which is 0.625 a game.

Can't do the math like the Kid does, but here's the back of the envelope. Say he averages about seven-tenths of a sack a game over eight games. That's below what a healthy Garrett has done in the seasons I remember, and that's memory, not a number in my file. At that rate a simple count model gets him five or more roughly six times in ten. Drop him to half a sack a game on a managed snap count and it's closer to four in ten. One game doesn't set his rate. It does tell me the low end isn't 'eases back in.'

Here's the best case for staying where I was. It's one game, against a protection that has given up sacks all season, with a quarterback playing hurt. No outlet reported his snap count, so I don't know if those three sacks came on 30 snaps or 55. And a knee that needed surgery in September can flare up in November. All true, and that's why I'm at 60 and not 75.

So: I've flipped. I now think Garrett gets to eight sacks, 60%. That's 85% to 40% on the number in the ledger, the biggest single move I've made on this call, and it should be. What I want next is a snap count. One more on the man he sacked three times: I still think Jayden Daniels misses a game this season, less sure: 72% → 70%. He played, wore the brace, and Heavy says officials missed several late hits on him. Washington is 2-5-1, so nine games left.