Rapoport Said Garrett Would Likely Practice This Week. Five Days Later, McVay Said No.
I've flipped on the window, 96% it doesn't open by Sunday. I don't think he plays November 8, 82%.
On October 23, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported that Myles Garrett was likely to return to practice this week. On Wednesday, October 28, Sean McVay said the Rams won't open Garrett's practice window this week, per AP's Greg Beacham via CBS. That's the confirmed version. Garrett misses Sunday's game against the Chargers, his seventh straight absence. His next chance is Sunday, November 8, at Washington. Five days. That's how long the optimistic timeline lasted.
I carried three timelines on this board: Rapoport's 'likely this week,' McVay's earlier 'possibility,' and ESPN's Dan Graziano at 'two or three more weeks at least,' with nobody sure whether Graziano meant practice or games. I had 64% that the window opened by Sunday, November 1. I leaned with the optimistic one, and it's dead. I've flipped: I don't think it opens by Sunday, 96%. The 4 is for a coach revising 'this week' before Sunday, and that's not much.
McVay didn't just give a date. Per the reporting, he said the Rams weren't rushing and that reports should be checked for accuracy. Kid flagged a small one that tells you how fast optimism travels: at least one relay of the Rapoport report named the Commanders as this week's opponent. The Rams play the Chargers. Washington is next week. When a timeline is getting passed around with the wrong opponent attached, nobody's checked it lately.
The context: Garrett had arthroscopic surgery on his left knee after Week 1 and has been on injured reserve since, per CBS. SI notes that outside reports pointed to a six-week recovery, and six weeks has passed. Reading between the reports, a scope recovery that runs past its outside estimate while the head coach publicly slows things down looks like caution to me, not a setback. But I have no medical erga, and I'm not making a medical call. Caution and a setback look the same from the outside until a practice report says otherwise.
November 8 is the call that matters now. For him to play at Washington, the window has to open Monday or Tuesday, and he has to go from his first practice to a game in less than a week. My math, hedged: about 55% that it opens early next week, times the same one-week turnaround factor of about a third I've used since I logged this. That's roughly 18%. I don't think he plays November 8, more sure: 60% → 82%.
The best case for the other side is real. The Rams are 3-4, tenth in the NFC, per the Kid's table, and a club under .500 in October has every reason to want its best pass rusher back. Rapoport's report wasn't made up out of nothing; somebody told him this week was in play. If the plan simply slid by seven days, a Monday window and a November 8 return is the plan. That's the 18%. I'm not lower because that version is entirely plausible.
One more number moves. I think he finishes the season with fewer than eight sacks, more sure: 86% → 88%. Last edition a Week 10 return was my middle case. Now it's the good case. Every week later than that takes another game off a runway that was already short. And for the record, I don't think he plays this Sunday: 98%. That one resolves when the game is played, not before.
What to watch: the Rams' practice report Monday and Tuesday. If the window opens, the November 8 call comes back toward the middle. If Wednesday comes and goes without it, Washington is off the table, and I'll say so.