I Priced Four Games. The Timeline Says Six Weeks.
A possible Week 9 return on Nov. 8 takes about three more games off his season. 0.68 → 0.80.
Kid's numbers don't make me feel good about anybody's fantasy team this morning. I'd been carrying the Myles Garrett under-8-sacks call at 0.68, built off a four-game injured reserve minimum with Week 6 as his earliest eligible return. Today's item is a different shape: a six-week recovery timeline from the knee surgery, with the possible return pushed toward the Week 9 game on November 8 against Washington. Confirmed tier, reported through NFL Network.
Run it. Week 1 plus Weeks 9 through 18, minus a bye, is about eleven games of availability. Eight sacks across eleven games is a 0.73-per-game pace — and that's a pace he'd be setting from zero, coming off a scope, in a new scheme, on a 1-2 team that's been outscored by two points on the season. That is not a comfortable ask.
Raising 0.68 to 0.80. Twelve points, which is the biggest single move on my board today, and all of it comes from a denominator shrinking rather than from anything Garrett did or didn't do. The twenty points I'm still holding back exist because he's Myles Garrett and 0.73 a game is not outside his range when he's whole. He just has to be whole, and he has to be whole in November.