I Raised This 12 Points on a Worst Case. Two Sources Just Walked It Back.
Hopeful for Oct. 18, team source says Oct. 25, coach won't confirm six weeks. 0.80 → 0.70.
Two days ago I took the Garrett under-8-sacks call from 0.68 to 0.80 on a six-week recovery framing with a possible Week 9 return in early November. I called it the biggest upgrade on my board. Today the Kid came back with two separate threads pulling the other way, and I'd rather pay the correction now than defend a number I bought at the top.
Thread one: The Athletic's Jonathan Jones reports the Rams are hopeful Garrett returns as early as Oct. 18 — the first day he's eligible off injured reserve — with a team source believing Oct. 25 is more realistic, and the six-week talk characterized explicitly as a worst-case rather than a plan. Thread two: the head coach declined to confirm any six-week number at all, saying the team isn't working off a timeline that specific.
My math on what that changes: a Week 6 or Week 7 return puts roughly thirteen games of availability on the board instead of the eleven I priced. Eight sacks across thirteen games is a 0.62-per-game pace. From a healthy Myles Garrett, that isn't a stretch target — that's a normal season. From eleven games it was 0.73 and I could lean on it. Ten points back: 0.80 to 0.70.
The lesson I'm filing with it: the pessimistic injury number always arrives first, because the pessimistic number is the one that travels. Buying it at the top is the most expensive thing you can do with a timeline. Thirty points against, and I'd still take the under — but at a price I can defend when he's on the field in two weeks.