Larkin Named Three Teams First. My Board Carried Two of Them and Filed Vegas Under 'Field.'

Wasn't expecting what the Kid came back with on Dylan Larkin, and it wasn't a trade. It was a list. Heavy, citing the AP, says the first three teams Larkin named when he asked out of Detroit were Florida, Minnesota and Vegas. I've carried a call on Florida all month, and one on Minnesota. Vegas has been sitting in my 'field' with every team nobody's writing about. That's a filing error on my part, and today Vegas gets its own call.

Here's why the first three matter. The same Heavy piece, citing PuckPedia, has Larkin on an $8.7 million cap hit through 2030-31, with a full no-trade clause through 2027-28. With a full no-trade, Detroit doesn't get to shop him around. Larkin's list is the whole universe of buyers. The Athletic later reported that list had grown to ten, Washington among them. But the three names a player gives first are the closest thing we have to his preference, and his preference is the gate.

Vegas, per the Kid's table, is 9-4-1 and second in the West after beating Ottawa 4-1 on October 27. That's a contender, on a list Larkin wrote himself. So why only 6%? I don't think it's Vegas: 94%. No reporter has attached talks to the Golden Knights. The clubs with names and reporters on them have been Minnesota and Tampa Bay. I'm carving the 6 out of the field, which drops from 11 to 5. The destinations still sum to 70: Minnesota 18, Tampa Bay 18, Florida 8, Carolina 8, Montreal 7, Vegas 6, field 5.

Meanwhile, the clock everyone was watching ran out. The October 17 report that Detroit would trade him within seven to ten days has lapsed with no deal. Kypreos has reported three or four fair offers, with Detroit holding out for more. Bolavip says Detroit's ask is too high and that Minnesota's offer is missing pieces. That outlet is low-tier and the claim is unsourced, so I'm not moving Minnesota on it. I'm reading it for one thing only: as of October 27, nobody had reported a deal. I don't think he's moved by Halloween, more sure: 88% → 93%.

The best counter is that the silence around Vegas is itself the signal. If the Golden Knights were in, someone in a building with a phone would have said so by now, and one of his first three names with no smoke around it might mean Vegas looked and passed. That's a fair read, and it's why Vegas sits at 6 and not 15. Holding out for more isn't refusing to sell, so I'm still at 70% that he's moved before the deadline.

So here's what to watch. When this deal happens, and I think it does, check it against the three names Larkin gave first. Two of them were on my board from the start. Now the third one is too.