The Rangers Climbed to Seventh. On Points Per Game, They're Last of the Four.
I think the Rangers miss, less sure: 73% → 70%. I think Florida gets in, less sure: 78% → 76%.
The Rangers beat Seattle 4-3 on Saturday for their third straight win. They're 10-7-1 with 21 points, seventh in the East. Florida lost 4-3 at Washington and slid to eighth. Two days ago my board had the Rangers ninth. If you only read the table, the guy I've been calling a non-playoff team just passed the team I've been calling a playoff team.
Kid ran the numbers on the share of available points, and the order flips. New York .583. Florida .588. Buffalo .594. Washington .600. The Rangers are seventh because they've played 18 games, more than anyone in that group. Buffalo has played 16, Washington 15. The Capitals are three points behind the Rangers with three games in hand. Diddja see it? Seventh on points, last of the four on rate.
The split hasn't gone anywhere either. 8-2-0 at home, 2-5-1 on the road, with goals 55-52, and Shesterkin listed out for the season in the Kid's prior file. I'll give them this much: Saturday's win came on the road, and the road record is what I've been leaning on. That's three points off my number.
The best case for the Rangers is that points in the bank are real, a three-game streak is real, and a team that's this good at home doesn't need to be great on the road. Fair. But the bank is exactly as big as their games played, and I can't tell you how many home dates they have left. The Kid hasn't got a schedule in the file, so I'm not leaning on a home/road mix I can't see. I think the Rangers miss, less sure: 73% → 70%.
Florida is the other half of this, and the Kid's anomaly is the right read. They're 9-6-2 without Barkov or Marchand, and Lundell is now day-to-day too. Marchand isn't expected back on the road trip that ends Tuesday, Nov. 10, at Columbus. Markström got Saturday off ahead of Boston, rested, not hurt, which retires a stale premise I'd been carrying. Florida slid to eighth because clubs with games in hand caught up, not because they collapsed. Two points off for the rate table: I think Florida gets in, less sure: 78% → 76%.