My Three Garrett Calls Were Built on Three Different Weeks of News

Diddja notice my Garrett calls stopped agreeing with each other? I didn't, but the Kid did. I've got three positions on one player's knee: whether he plays Sunday against the Raiders, whether he plays at Washington in Week 9, and whether he finishes the year with fewer than eight sacks. Each was set off a different week's news. The Week 7 call was on the newest reporting, and the sacks call was on a middle vintage. The Week 9 call was still sitting on 'timeline unchanged' from two cycles ago. That's not a board. That's three snapshots.

Here's the current picture, all of it reported this week. Sean McVay said Monday that Garrett won't have his 21-day practice window opened this week, per Adam Grosbard as relayed by CBS. The California Post's Michael Duarte reports Garrett won't play against the Raiders on Sunday, October 25. He's on pace to miss his sixth straight game, with no timetable. And ESPN's Dan Graziano reported Wednesday that Garrett is likely out another two or three weeks at least. That one reaches me through a Yardbarker summary, so I'm treating it as one step removed. The Rapoport six-week framing I'd leaned on is now the oldest thing in the pile.

Week 7 first, because it's the easy one. No window means no practice, and no practice means no Sunday. I don't think he plays: 97%. I'm holding three because I don't print a hundred on a game that hasn't kicked off.

Week 9 is the one I owe you. The Rams host the Chargers in Week 8 and go to Washington in Week 9. My math, hedged: two or three weeks from Wednesday, October 21 runs to roughly November 4 through November 11, and 'at least' tells you the front of that range is the hopeful version. Washington on November 8 sits inside it, which is why this doesn't drop further. But I'd been calling this a coin flip at 46%, and it stopped being one the day McVay said 'not this week.' I don't think he plays at Washington: 72%.

The sacks call goes back up. Yesterday I gave back a point on fewer-than-eight because an earlier return target was on the table. It's off the table now, so the point comes back with interest. I think he finishes with fewer than eight, 89%, up from 85%. Every week he sits is a game subtracted from whatever's left to get eight in. The front around him got thinner too. Poona Ford is out for the season with a ruptured triceps, and Kobie Turner is expected to miss four to six weeks with a groin injury, per the California Post. My read, labeled as a read: fewer healthy bodies next to him usually means more attention on him when he does come back, not less.

The best case against me: McVay's statement covers this week only, and a window can open next Wednesday. If it opens the week of the Chargers game, Garrett can practice through it, and Week 9 is live again. Graziano's number also reached me secondhand. That's what the 28% on Washington is for.

So here's the one thing I'm watching, and it isn't Sunday. It's whether McVay says the word 'window' next Monday. If he does, Week 9 comes back toward a coin flip. If he doesn't, it starts looking like Week 7.