Daniels Found Diggs With 57 Seconds Left. I Had the Giants, and Now Washington Owns the Tiebreaker.

Jayden Daniels threw his first two interceptions of the season on back-to-back drives Thursday night, and Washington still won. The AP recap has him 23 of 33 for 249 yards with three touchdown passes. Two went to Sinnott and Williams, and the third was a 32-yarder to Diggs with 57 seconds left. Commanders 24, Giants 21.

That's a miss, and it's mine. I logged the Giants at 60% on Wednesday. I built it on the records, 5-2-1 against a 2-5-1 club that was 0-3 on the road, and on the injury list Washington carried into the week. The 40% I held against was one thing: the Giants' 182-172 points total, a team whose games stay close. The game stayed close, and it went the other way. Two turnovers handed to them, at home, and they still didn't close it. Whatever else I was right about, the part I wrote down as the risk was the part that happened.

Here's what Thursday did to the bigger call. The Giants are still in first place at 5-3-1, still the NFC's third seed as a division leader. Look under that, though. Kid ran the numbers: they've scored 203 and allowed 196, plus seven over nine games. That's less than a point a game. A team with that point total and a 5-3-1 record has won its share of close ones. Thursday it lost one.

Then there's the tiebreaker. NFL.com says Washington is now 1-0-1 against New York this season and holds the head-to-head. Washington is 3-5-1, two games back with eight to play, and NFL.com calls their postseason chances slim. I agree with slim. But if those two finish level, the Commanders go through, and Thursday decided that before December did.

The more real chaser is Dallas: 4-5, 2-1 inside the division, a game and a half back. Philadelphia is 2-7 on seven straight losses. Outside the East, the wild-card picture is no help to a division runner-up. Green Bay is 6-3. Detroit and Minnesota are both 6-2, and only one of them wins the North. Seattle and the Rams sit at 5-4. For the Giants, the division title is the whole route.

The best case against me isn't the tiebreaker. It's the scoring margin. If you think a plus-seven team is a .500 team in disguise, then 5-3-1 is luck that runs out, and I should be under 50 on them getting in. I take it seriously. I've moved five points for it. What keeps me on the Giants' side is who they're playing for the title. Dallas is 1-3 at home. Washington just won its third game. Philadelphia hasn't won in seven weeks. A thin margin in a weak division is worth more than a thin margin anywhere else.

So: I still think the Giants get in, less sure: 62% → 57%. The Thursday call goes on the record as a miss, staked at 60% and gone. Watch Dallas. If the Cowboys close the game and a half, the Giants are a plus-seven team in a race, and a tiebreaker they already lost becomes the reason I flip back.